Bitcoin (BTC) failed to sustain levels above $85,000 on March 14, despite a 1.9% gain in the S&P 500 index. More importantly, it has been over a week since Bitcoin last traded at $90,000, prompting traders to question whether the bull market is truly over and how long selling pressure will persist.
Bitcoin basis rate rebounds from bearish levels
From a derivatives perspective, Bitcoin metrics have shown resilience despite a 30% drop from its all-time high of $109,354 on Jan. 20. The Bitcoin basis rate, which measures the premium of monthly contracts over spot markets, has recovered to healthy levels after briefly signaling bearish sentiment on March 13.
Bitcoin 2-month futures contracts annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch
Traders typically demand a 5% to 10% annualized premium to compensate for longer settlement periods. A basis rate below this threshold signals weak demand from leveraged