For years, crypto investors have looked to the four-year cycle, anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events, as a kind of sacred roadmap. The theory goes: Every four years, Bitcoin’s supply is cut in half, triggering a bullish frenzy, followed by a euphoric peak, a brutal crash, and then a slow recovery. Rinse, repeat.
But what if that model is starting to break? That is what onchain analyst James Check suggests.
In an interview with Cointelegraph, Check said that the tidy frameworks that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior are no longer as useful in today’s macro-driven, institutionally influenced environment.
Rather than labeling the current market as “bull” or “bear,” Check paints a more nuanced picture. Bitcoin, he argues, is now driven more by macroeconomic conditions and investor psychology than by predictable cycles or halving dates. As such, the lines between bull and bear get blurry.
“The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” he says. “You