Key takeaways:
Bitcoin tends to rally significantly when low leverage meets stronger-than-expected retail sales and hawkish Federal Reserve signals.
In three separate 7-week periods, Bitcoin rose 50% to 84%.
Upcoming speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could benefit Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin (BTC) price rallies are frequently linked to investors’ inflation concerns or data that surpasses expectations for economic growth, yet clear signals of an impending rally are rare. However, a combination of three independent events has historically coincided with BTC price surges of 50% or more.
Bitcoin/USD, log scale. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
Significant Bitcoin rallies occur when US Federal Reserve policy expectations ease, crypto market leverage is low, and strong retail data supports bullish momentum. The last occurrence of these three events saw Bitcoin’s price climb from $40,000 to $73,500 in seven weeks in early 2024.
Comparable gains were recorded in early 2023, when the same three drivers aligned, propelling Bitcoin