Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle, anchored around its halving events, is widely recognized as a key factor in BTC’s year-over-year price growth. Within this larger framework, traders have come to expect distinct phases: accumulation, parabolic rallies, and eventual crashes.
Throughout the four-year period, shorter-duration cycles also emerge, often driven by shifts in market sentiment and the behavior of long- and short-term holders. These cycles, shaped by the psychological patterns of market participants, can provide insights into Bitcoin’s next moves.
Bitcoin whales eat as markets retreat
Long-term Bitcoin holders — those holding for three to five years — are often considered the most seasoned participants. Typically wealthier and more experienced, they can weather extended bear markets and tend to sell near local tops.
According to recent data from Glassnode, long-term holders distributed over 2 million BTC in two distinct waves