US-based crypto trading platforms regaining influence over Bitcoin’s (BTC) token transfer volumes could possibly kick-start a rally in the second half of 2025.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr pointed out that the “US vs. off-shore ratio,” which measures token transfer volumes between US-regulated and offshore exchanges, indicated a drop in dominance from US exchanges after BTC reached an all-time high in January.
Bitcoin total transferred ratio chart (US vs off-shore). Source: X.com
As illustrated in the chart, a trend reversal is underway, which implies BTC transfer volumes on US exchanges are beginning to rise again, aligning with previous bull market rallies.
A key technical indicator in the chart is the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 365-day SMA. Historically, this crossover has preceded major price rallies. For example, when this signal occurred at $60,000, Bitcoin began a rally